Four papers, published on SSRN, applying the Systemic Early Warning Indicator framework against the documented ANAO record. Read in sequence, from the foundation case to the cross-case synthesis.
A Retrospective Analysis of AIR5431 Phase 3 (CMATS) against the Systemic Early Warning Indicator Framework
Read the full paper →The termination case. MRH90 Taipan is the only program in the ANAO's Major Projects Report series to be terminated rather than recovered, testing Program Drift Theory's distinction between recoverable and irreversible deterioration.
Read the full paper →LAND200 Tranche 2 is the only program in the ANAO's Major Projects Report series where the Auditor-General issued a formal Qualified Conclusion, finding the program's own reporting materially inconsistent with the evidence.
Read the full paper →The cross-case synthesis. Extends the CMATS finding to three further programs, Hunter Class Frigate, MQ-4C Triton, and LAND400 Phase 2, testing whether the pattern holds across the acquisition portfolio rather than in a single case.
Read the full paper →